Possible scenarios that could occur in Syria following the overthrow of the Assad regime continue to be discussed. It remains unclear whether Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) will be able to establish a central government in the country. The biggest concern is that Syria will be dragged into a new, bloodier civil war.
Experts speaking to the British state broadcaster BBC are considering three scenarios.
The best-case scenario for Syria; to break out of the cycle of revenge that could lead to other conflicts as foreseen in neighboring countries and to establish a national reconciliation environment after the war.
However, he emphasizes the difficulty of establishing a central administration in Syria, as numerous groups have different agendas.
For example, it is seen as unlikely that the tribes in the south of the country, which have historically recognized the authority of the Assad family, will submit to the new administration in Damascus.
Whether all these groups will return to Syria and become part of the political transition process is also a matter of debate. There have been comments that HTS will have difficulty governing the country on its own because it does not have the necessary infrastructure.
On the one hand, it is also said that HTS does not have enough soldiers and human resources to establish an oppressive administration throughout the country.
There are concerns that violent clashes could erupt between different armed groups if something similar to what happened after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Saddam Hussein in Iraq were to occur.
Experts also emphasize that all these possible outcomes will also depend on the moves of external powers.
There are warnings that Israel’s actions could destabilize Syria by weakening the central government and emboldening hardliners.
